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Reported by us | New Bedford

Healey leads Minogue in two new polls of the Massachusetts governor's race

Neither poll asked about the lieutenant governor's race. Suffolk's interviews began three days before the crash involving Shawn Oliver in New Bedford and ended the day after it.

By the SC360 Town Hall Desk | Published Oct. 20, 2026 | Last verified Oct. 20, 2026, 3:58 p.m. ET

NEW BEDFORD Gov. Maura Healey leads Republican Mike Minogue in two public polls of the governor's race released this week, and the newer of the two was still interviewing voters when Minogue's running mate, Shawn Oliver, was in a crash in New Bedford late Saturday, Oct. 17, according to police. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released Tuesday put Healey, a Democrat, at 59% and Minogue at 36%, and a UMass Amherst/WCVB poll released Monday had Healey ahead 57% to 32%.

Neither poll asked about the lieutenant governor's race or about Oliver, according to the question lists in the results each pollster posted. Oliver, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor and the Ward 3 member of the New Bedford City Council, suspended his campaign Sunday, Oct. 18, and his name stays on the Nov. 3 ballot. New Bedford police charged him with operating under the influence of liquor, negligent operation of a motor vehicle, speeding and a marked lanes violation. A not guilty plea was entered on his behalf Monday in New Bedford District Court, and he is presumed innocent unless proven guilty in court.

The Suffolk University poll

Suffolk University's Political Research Center interviewed 500 likely general election voters by live interview from Wednesday, Oct. 14, through Sunday, Oct. 18, according to its release. The interviews began three days before the crash and ended the day after it. Suffolk's posted results are not broken out by interview date, so they do not show whether answers shifted after the crash. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Asked whom they would vote for or lean toward, 58.6% chose Healey, 36% chose Minogue, 2% chose independent Andrea James and 3.4% were undecided, the poll's marginals show. The release rounds those figures to 59%, 36%, 2% and 3%. Among the 164 respondents in the region Suffolk labels "SE Mass/Cape," Healey led 50% to 45%, with 2% for James and 3% undecided, the cross tabs show. Suffolk's stated margin of error covers the full 500, not that smaller group. In the same pollster's June survey of 500 registered voters, which offered only Healey and Minogue, Healey led 56.2% to 31%, with 11.4% undecided.

David Paleologos, director of the research center, said in the release that voters "may agree with Mike Minogue that taxes are too high," but added, "that message is coming from someone who is perceived as too close to Donald Trump, one of the reasons Minogue hasn't gotten traction in his race against Governor Healey." In the October poll, 55.2% said taxes in Massachusetts are too high and 58.2% rated the state economy fair or poor, and 42.2% said the state has become a worse place to live over the last four years.

Asked whether a Republican candidate's support for President Donald Trump affects their vote, 60.4% said they would not vote for that candidate because of it or would be less likely to, while 30.8% said it makes no difference and 7.4% said it makes them more likely. Minogue was viewed favorably by 28.4% and unfavorably by 33%, and 21% said they had never heard of him. Healey was viewed favorably by 56.4% and unfavorably by 34.4%.

The UMass Amherst poll

For the UMass Amherst poll, YouGov interviewed 852 registered voters from Oct. 5 to 12 and matched them down to a final sample of 800, according to the poll's toplines, which list a margin of error of 4.2%. Every interview was done before the crash.

Counting voters who lean toward a candidate, Healey had 57%, Minogue 32%, James 6% and another candidate 2%, while 3% did not know. Without leaners, the figures were 56%, 31%, 5%, 1% and 7%. In the poll's August survey, which listed only Healey and Minogue, Healey led 53% to 33% with 12% not sure.

Healey's job approval stood at 58%, with 38% disapproving. Majorities also said she had broken her 2022 campaign promises to cut taxes (56%) and to reduce the cost of living (61%), and 42% of respondents who plan to vote ranked the cost of living first among the factors in their choice for governor. "While Minogue still has time to make the race more competitive, Healey's broad-based support puts her in a strong position to retain the corner office on Beacon Hill," said Tatishe Nteta, the poll's director, in the release.

Earlier polls

The MassINC Polling Group's survey for CommonWealth Beacon, taken online Sept. 14 to 22 among 800 likely voters, had Healey at 54% and Minogue at 32% with leaners, James at 4% and 6% undecided, its toplines show. Before leaners were asked, it was 51% to 30% with 12% undecided. The survey's credibility interval is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A University of New Hampshire poll put Healey's lead at 16 points, GBH News reported Oct. 8 in a story that also quoted Minogue at a campaign stop in Middleton: "I feel very confident that people are paying attention now." That poll, like the MassINC and UMass surveys, was finished before the crash. The university's posted report would not open when we tried to check its full results.

What the campaigns have said

As of 3:20 p.m. Tuesday, South Coast 360 had found no public statement from either the Healey or the Minogue campaign about the Suffolk or UMass results. Both candidates have spoken about the Oliver case, as we have reported. Minogue said Sunday that he would ask for Oliver's resignation if elected and said Monday that Oliver "will not be my lieutenant governor." Healey said Monday that she was glad no one was hurt and grateful to the first responders. Any response from either campaign about the polls will be added to this story.

Related: Why Oliver's name stays on the Nov. 3 ballot; Would Oliver have to leave the City Council if he's elected lieutenant governor?

What happens next

The state election is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Some voters have already cast ballots: 2.2% of Suffolk's sample, 11 people, said they had already voted. Oliver's next court date in the OUI case is Monday, Nov. 16, in New Bedford District Court.

Label: Reported by us, from the town's posted records.

How we verified this

Every poll figure comes from the pollsters' own posted releases, marginals, cross tabs and toplines (Suffolk University, UMass Amherst, the MassINC Polling Group), read Oct. 20. The University of New Hampshire figure and Minogue's Oct. 8 remark come from the news report credited above. The university's report did not load for us. Facts about Oliver's case, Minogue's Oct. 18 and 19 statements and Healey's Oct. 19 remarks come from South Coast 360's earlier verified stories. Dates, weekdays and combined figures were checked against a calendar and the pollsters' own tables. Not heard: no statement from either campaign on the October polls was found by 3:20 p.m. Oct. 20.

Corrections

No corrections to this story. If something here is wrong, tell us. Every correction is dated on the story and listed in our public log.

Sources (10)

  1. Suffolk University Massachusetts Poll (press release, Oct. 20, 2026)Suffolk University Political Research Center. Toplines as rounded, field dates Oct. 14 to 18, 500 likely voters, live interviews, margin of error +/- 4.4 points for the total sample, the Paleologos quote. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  2. SUPRC Massachusetts likely voters, field Oct. 14 to 18 (marginals)Suffolk University. Full question list and results: governor (Q8), taxes (Q17), economy (Q12), better or worse place (Q11), Trump support (Q16), favorability (Q25, Q26), already voted (Q1). No question on the lieutenant governor race. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  3. SUPRC statewide cross tabs (Oct. 20, 2026)Suffolk University. Table Q8 by region: SE/Cape, 164 respondents. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  4. SUPRC Massachusetts registered voters, June 8 to 12, 2026 (marginals)Suffolk University. Healey vs. Minogue, two-way question, 500 registered voters. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  5. UMass Amherst Poll release, October 2026 Massachusetts pollUMass Poll, UMass Amherst, posted Oct. 19, 2026. Methodology, the Nteta quote. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  6. Toplines, University of Massachusetts Amherst October 2026 Massachusetts PollUMass Poll. Field dates Oct. 5 to 12, 800 registered voters, margin of error 4.2%; governor question with and without leaners; approval; promises; vote factors. No question on the lieutenant governor race. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  7. Toplines, University of Massachusetts Amherst August 2026 Massachusetts PollUMass Poll. Field dates Aug. 5 to 12; Healey vs. Minogue 53% to 33%, 12% not sure. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  8. The MassINC Polling Group & CommonWealth Beacon Massachusetts Ballot Questions Poll (toplines)MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon. 800 likely voters, online, Sept. 14 to 22, 2026; credibility interval +/- 4 points. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  9. Shawn Oliver OUI case (South Coast 360 lead story and its verified updates)South Coast 360's earlier verified reporting from the police reports, the court and two newsrooms: the Oct. 17 crash, the four charges, the plea entered Oct. 19, the Nov. 16 date, the Oct. 18 suspension, Minogue's Oct. 18 and 19 statements and Healey's Oct. 19 remarks. Read Oct. 20, 2026.
  10. Also reported by: GBH News.

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