NEW BEDFORD Subtropical Storm Josephine formed over the North Atlantic on Wednesday, but it will stay far enough offshore that southern New England's forecast is unchanged, the National Weather Service's Boston/Norton office said in its Wednesday evening forecast discussion. Its only fingerprints on the South Coast are gusty northerly winds and one round of light overnight rain that tapers off early Thursday.
The overnight rain is the western edge of the offshore system's rain shield creeping toward the coast, the discussion says, and it will be fighting dry air the whole way: dew points in the 30s mean much of it may struggle to measure. The New Bedford area forecast calls for a 30 percent chance of light rain, mainly before 2 a.m., with the steadiest light rain reserved for Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Showers and clouds both decrease Thursday as the storm pulls away to the northeast.
Wind is the bigger local effect. The discussion calls for northeast to northerly gusts of 20 to 25 mph over most of the mainland, and 35 to 45 mph on Cape Cod and the Islands into Thursday noon, before easing to the 20 to 35 mph range Thursday night into Friday. The New Bedford point forecast carries gusts to 31 mph on Thursday. Seas stay rough, and the office's marine headlines remain in effect for boaters.
Behind the departing storm comes the coldest night of the stretch. Thursday night's lows drop to 28 to 34 degrees along and northwest of Interstate 95, the discussion says, cold enough for frost inland. The immediate coast stays milder under the breeze: the New Bedford forecast calls for a low near 39 Thursday night and near 36 Friday night, so gardeners away from the water should plan on covering tender plants heading into the weekend.
Then the weather turns quiet and stays that way. High pressure from eastern Canada brings a prolonged dry stretch from Friday into next Wednesday, the discussion says, with Friday the coolest day, a high near 53 in New Bedford, and temperatures moderating after that: near 56 Saturday, near 61 Sunday, both with full sun. The weekend's Halloween events, from trunk-or-treats to the final Victorian mourning evening at the Lizzie Borden House on Sunday, get dry skies, though jackets will be needed after sunset with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Looking further out, the office says a front approaching around Monday night into Wednesday turns the weather cooler again by midweek, though its timing is uncertain, caught between two competing high pressure systems. As of early Thursday, no watches, warnings or advisories were in effect for South Coast land areas. The next full forecast discussion from the Boston/Norton office is due early Thursday morning.
Label: Reported by us, from the town's posted records.
How we verified this
Every figure is the National Weather Service's own, read fresh early Oct. 22 from the Boston/Norton evening area forecast discussion (issued 7:35 p.m. EDT Oct. 21) and the forecast for the New Bedford point, with the active-alerts check returning zero for the point at the same read. Josephine's formation, the gust ranges, the 28-to-34 inland lows and the dry-stretch framing all come from the discussion itself; the local highs, lows and rain chance come from the point forecast. The frost call and the plant-covering line are our advice drawn directly from the forecast lows, not NWS quotes. The weekend events named are from our own community coverage this week. We checked each date and weekday against a calendar. Not a repeat of the Oct. 21 gale story: this leads with Josephine's formation, the overnight rain and the first 28-to-34 inland-low forecast of the stretch, none of which that story covered.
Corrections
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Sources (3)
- National Weather Service Boston/Norton: Area Forecast Discussion, 7:35 p.m. EDT Oct. 21, 2026The primary record, read fresh: Subtropical Storm Josephine's formation Wednesday and its offshore track; the light-rain shield fighting 30s dew points tonight; the gust ranges (20 to 25 mph mainland, 35 to 45 Cape and Islands into Thursday noon, easing to 20 to 35 Thursday night into Friday); Thursday night lows of 28 to 34 along and northwest of I-95; the dry stretch Friday into Wednesday; the front some time Monday night into Wednesday, its timing uncertain. Read Oct. 22, 2026.
- National Weather Service gridpoint forecast for New Bedford (BOX 81,69)The local figures: a 30 percent chance of light rain, mainly before 2 a.m., with a low near 50; Thursday high near 59 with gusts to 31 mph; Thursday night low near 39; Friday high near 53 and Friday night low near 36; Saturday near 56; Sunday near 61, all sunny after Thursday. Read Oct. 22, 2026.
- National Weather Service active alerts for the New Bedford pointZero active watches, warnings or advisories for the point as of about 1 a.m. EDT Oct. 22, checked the same read. Read Oct. 22, 2026.